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How realistic is hyperbitcoinization (a tipping point where people start a rush to exit fiat for bitcoin in a fiat devaluation event http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/). Let's look at some global monetary and gold statistics.
Some talk about bitcoin perhaps one day matching or passing gold market cap. https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/
at $4400 which Bitcoin has been above for some of this month, it already reached around 1% of gold market cap.
But what other global targets are there for comparison. Globally, all paper currency and coins are valued around $5 trillion - at $4400 Bitcoin was already 1.5% of that.
Paper currency plus bank balances and savings value around $90 trillion - so if Bitcoin got to $50k/BTC (10x recent bitcoin highs) bitcoin would be valued 1% of all money!
So where is the tipping point - where people sit up and take notice - I'm not sure, but 1.5% of all physical currency is already pretty interesting. What happens if/when Bitcoin gets to 10%? Which then gets within reach of 1% of money of physical and bank deposits/savings globally. At some point there has to be a tipping point where money leaving accelerates for fear of falling fiat and we see the adoption S-curve play-out http://www.uversity.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Communication-Technology-Adoption-Peter-Leyden.png
The ETFs and institutional money have barely started yet, and historically gold price was influenced by the introduction of ETFs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-gold-etfs-have-transformed-market-in-10-years-2013-03-29
So will hyperbitcoinization happen, who knows. But the possibility is maybe not so far-fetched. It seems that bitcoin price news itself drives financial and other media interest - though maybe for reasons not so exposed to Bitcoin's value position.
(Some data from http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/ and https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/)
What would a stable post S-curve adoption price look like economically or geopolitically?
Interesting questions. As we've seen in the eurozone it can be difficult for countries, like Greece, to have a single currency but divergent economic policy - with the Drachma in previous economic downturns, they had been able to exploit a weak exchange rate to rebound by exporting their way out of recession. On the other end we've seen Iceland currency drop 60% https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/?utm_term=.5461176249e9 and recover faster. An interesting alternative or future strategy proposed by Icelander Sveinn Valfells was that Iceland adopt Bitcoin as a currency - with it's cheap geothermal power it has unique advantages for Bitcoin mining. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245327990_Bitcoin_for_Microstates_-_How_Iceland_could_adopt_Bitcoin
Sveinn VALFELLS Read 24 publications Contact Sveinn VALFELLS. The Fermi surface of the charge transfer salt α-(BEDT-TTF)2KHg(SCN)4 includes both quasi-one and quasi-two dimensional orbits. View Sveinn Valfells’ professional profile on LinkedIn. LinkedIn is the world's largest business network, helping professionals like Sveinn Valfells discover inside connections to recommended ... Sveinn Valfells. Follow. Apr 7, 2019 · 3 min read. Over the weekend a friend of mine sent me a link to a recent article in the Economist, “Flaws in Bitcoin make a lasting revival unlikely ... Sveinn Valfells has advised, worked for, co-founded and invested in companies in biotech, bioinformatics, financial services, telecoms, mobile software, and venture capital. He first transacted Bitcoins in mid-2011 and has since given numerous presentations and interviews about blockchains and cryptocurrencies, including on the BBC, at CoinSummit, Scaling Bitcoin, MIT DCI, Stockholm ... How to mine Bitcoin pro tably Sveinn Valfells, PhD1 & J on Helgi Egilsson2 1linkd.in/wtaHi5 2Faculty of Economics University of Iceland Presented at Scaling Bitcoin, Montreal September 13, 2015 Sveinn Valfells, PhD & J on Helgi Egilsson Minting Money With Megawatts Presented at Scaling Bitcoin, Montreal September 13, 2015 1 / 16. Outline 1 How to Mine Bitcoin Pro tably 2 About the Authors 3 ...
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